Forecasting Economic Time Series

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November 1998



An extended formal analysis of economic forecasting co-authored by one of the world's leading econometricians.


1. An introduction to economic forecasting; 2. First principles; 3. Evaluating forecast accuracy; 4. Forecasting in univariate processes; 5. Monte Carlo techniques; 6. Forecasting in co-intergrated systems; 7. Forecasting with large-scale macro-econometric models; 8. A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts; 9. Forecasting using leading indicators; 10. Combining forecasts; 11. Multi-step estimation; 12. Parsimony; 13. Testing forecast accuracy; 14. Postscript.


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'Perhaps one of the most appealing features of the book is the systematic way in which it outlines and uncovers problems in forecasting, lays out possible solutions, and uses Monte Carlo, theoretical and empirical evidence to assess the potential solutions. Another appealing feature is that beginning researchers who are generally interested in serious (empirical) scientific investigation can learn much from noting how Clements and Hendry uncover, assess, and examine important issues in the area of economic forecasting. A third feature worth noting is the plethora of insightful and detailed empirical and Monte Carlo evidence. Forecasting Economic Time Series not only elucidates in detailed fashion how to construct macroeconomic forecasts, but also contains many hints on how to construct good macroeconomic forecasts. This makes it a must for forecasters' Journal of the American Statistical Association
EAN: 9780521632423
ISBN: 0521632420
Untertitel: New. Sprache: Englisch.
Erscheinungsdatum: November 1998
Seitenanzahl: 392 Seiten
Format: gebunden
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