Will Peak Oil Fuel the AIDS Epidemic?
BeschreibungA systems methodology to examine large scale interrelated complex global systems governing natural resource use, population, economy and global health is developed. Evaluates the individual disciplines and their integration as a system. Integrated assessment (IA) examines if the looming peak in world oil production, and the post-peak oil era can intensify the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Questions include:
When could the world reach peak oil?
How will the growth of middle class India and China affect oil use?
What are the economic implications for HIV/AIDS funding in a post-peak oil era?
What is the humanitarian cost in lives lost per barrel of oil deficit?
A range of models are developed and integrated in a decision support future assessment system used as a reasoning guide. An interactive cybernetic approach incorporating the global earth/human dimensions is applied to manage the many aspects of complexity and uncertainty. IA is enhanced by a decision-making paradigm that utilizes real data, a family of multi-level hierarchical models, and a human-in-the-loop approach. Corner scenarios envelope the scope of future development and potential scenarios demonstrate possible futures therein.
PortraitA graduate in Systems Engineering at Case Western Reserve University, Dr. Atzberger is a faculty at Cuyahoga Community College. He has taught for many years at various levels and trained in Mathematical Modeling of Global Systems since 2003. He gave extensive lectures and workshops in Papua New Guinea in August of 2007 on his work and methodology.
Untertitel: A Complex Systems Approach to Sustainability. Paperback. Sprache: Englisch.
Verlag: VDM Verlag
Erscheinungsdatum: Juli 2008
Seitenanzahl: 412 Seiten